Base Rate Fallacy

This is a very good graphic:

When a headline says "half of hospitalizations are vaccinated" it is innumerate fearmongering that will make people who are bad at math misinterpret that as "vaccines are only 50% effective", or worse lies.

An increasing ratio of hospitalized vaccinated is an inevitable result of increasing vaccination rates. It is a marker of success, not failure.

E.g.: "About two-thirds of people who die on UK roads are wearing a seatbelt, but this is a consequence of usage rates of nearly 99%."

Explaining probability, statistics and combinatorics to the public is really, really hard. This stuff is extremely nonintuitive even without dealing with the grifters. Here's a really good, easy to understand video on Bayes theorem.

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