More importantly, this is the ugliest version of money in politics. Gig platforms lobbied hard last summer to keep AB-5 from passing or to see that their industries were exempt from the law. They were unsuccessful. Now, they are spending $200 million-plus in marketing a proposition they wrote themselves. They are literally writing their own rules. When you have corporations writing their own regulations on how to treat a low-wage, largely people of color workforce, Californians cannot tolerate this blatant abuse of power.
Second, the proposition sets thresholds to qualify for wage guarantees and benefits so high, that the industry wouldn't need to change much at all. If it were to pass, these companies would also be able to act this way in perpetuity, given that any passed proposition takes a ⅞ supermajority to overturn.
1. If the proposition fails, will my fares go up?
Gig platforms may decide to do that. But they definitely don't have to. Companies could just reduce their commission from 40% to ~15% to comply with all labor/employment laws and keep prices the same. Check the math here.
2. But I heard drivers want Prop 22 to pass. Is that not true?!
Firstly, gig platforms have been extremely manipulative in getting workers to express support for Prop 22/against AB-5. Some tactics I have seen firsthand include offering free tacos, forcing drivers to accept that they support the proposition before being able to enter the app, and paying drivers $1,000 to appear in commercials. So right off the bat, I don't trust a lot of their "survey data." But yes -- some drivers are scared they'll lose their jobs if this were to fail, and many fear losing flexibility of hours.
On the number of drivers, for sure, platforms will try some shady tactics. For instance, in New York, Uber started locking drivers out of the app to comply with minimum wage requirements, rather than just paying a minimum wage. But if the platforms have to reduce the number of workers on their platforms, this is an admission that these workers are in fact not making minimum wage. [...]
9. If Prop 22 doesn't pass, won't Uber and Lyft pull out of California?
California is home to two major cities for ride-hailing and food delivery platforms: San Francisco and Los Angeles. Platforms that don't require workers to be in the same place as customers (for example, UpWork, translation platforms, etc.) may choose to not operate in California. But the largest platforms, and those spending on passing Prop 22, require workers and customers to be in the same place, and California accounts for ~40% of their U.S. business, so... extremely unlikely they'll pull out.
Previously, previously, previously, previously, previously, previously, previously.