"Today, we were notified by USAF that there is a 5.6% chance that Genesis II will collide with dead Russian satellite Cosmos 1300 in 15 hours."

Genesis II is an experimental habitat that went into space in 2007. It was effectively retired in 2011 following the failure of its maneuvering system, which actually lasted two years longer than it was supposed to, a Bigelow spokeswoman told Gizmodo by phone today. Genesis II remains in orbit but is no longer collecting data. [...] The defunct Kosmos 1300 surveillance satellite, built and operated by the former Soviet Union, dates back to 1981.

The Genesis II spacecraft is scheduled to de-orbit at some point in the 2020s, so its destruction would be no major loss. The larger concern is that a collision would produce copious amounts of space debris, which would in turn increase the chances of further collisions, in a never-ending cascade of orbital destruction. [...]

At odds approaching 6 percent, a collision is unlikely but still uncomfortably possible.

Now I'm no mathematician but that sounds like ONE IN TWENTY to me. Or as John Rogers put it:

"Hey I'm just gonna toss the possibility of a Kessler Cascade on the table and fuck off right out of here, no big deal" is a choice.

"There's a slight but nonzero chance GPS and cellphones and weather and military satellites all go away by the end of the week" is very 2019.

Update: Maybe next time! BigelowSpace: "Per the Air Force, there was no collision between Genesis II and Cosmos 1300. Pass at 200m distance at 17000km/h"

Previously, previously, previously, previously, previously, previously, previously, previously.