The Really Big One

This is some really nicely written disaster porn.

"Everything west of Interstate 5 will be toast. The inundation zone will be scoured of structures from California to Canada."

If, on that occasion, only the southern part of the Cascadia subduction zone gives way, the magnitude of the resulting quake will be somewhere between 8.0 and 8.6. That's the big one. If the entire zone gives way at once, an event that seismologists call a full-margin rupture, the magnitude will be somewhere between 8.7 and 9.2. That's the very big one.

When the next very big earthquake hits, the northwest edge of the continent, from California to Canada and the continental shelf to the Cascades, will drop by as much as six feet and rebound thirty to a hundred feet to the west -- losing, within minutes, all the elevation and compression it has gained over centuries. Some of that shift will take place beneath the ocean, displacing a colossal quantity of seawater. The water will surge upward into a huge hill, then promptly collapse. One side will rush west, toward Japan. The other side will rush east, in a seven-hundred-mile liquid wall that will reach the Northwest coast, on average, fifteen minutes after the earthquake begins. By the time the shaking has ceased and the tsunami has receded, the region will be unrecognizable. Kenneth Murphy, who directs FEMA's Region X, the division responsible for Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and Alaska, says, "Our operating assumption is that everything west of Interstate 5 will be toast." [...]

In fact, the science is robust, and one of the chief scientists behind it is Chris Goldfinger. Thanks to work done by him and his colleagues, we now know that the odds of the big Cascadia earthquake happening in the next fifty years are roughly one in three. The odds of the very big one are roughly one in ten. Even those numbers do not fully reflect the danger -- or, more to the point, how unprepared the Pacific Northwest is to face it. The truly worrisome figures in this story are these: Thirty years ago, no one knew that the Cascadia subduction zone had ever produced a major earthquake. Forty-five years ago, no one even knew it existed. [...]

Four to six minutes after the dogs start barking, the shaking will subside. For another few minutes, the region, upended, will continue to fall apart on its own. Then the wave will arrive, and the real destruction will begin.

Those who cannot get out of the inundation zone under their own power will quickly be overtaken by a greater one. A grown man is knocked over by ankle-deep water moving at 6.7 miles an hour. The tsunami will be moving more than twice that fast when it arrives. Its height will vary with the contours of the coast, from twenty feet to more than a hundred feet. It will not look like a Hokusai-style wave, rising up from the surface of the sea and breaking from above. It will look like the whole ocean, elevated, overtaking land. Nor will it be made only of water -- not once it reaches the shore. It will be a five-story deluge of pickup trucks and doorframes and cinder blocks and fishing boats and utility poles and everything else that once constituted the coastal towns of the Pacific Northwest.

To see the full scale of the devastation when that tsunami recedes, you would need to be in the international space station. The inundation zone will be scoured of structures from California to Canada. The earthquake will have wrought its worst havoc west of the Cascades but caused damage as far away as Sacramento.

Hey, remember that time the National Weather Service put out a bulletin about "HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS"? Yeah, good times.

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5 Responses:

  1. mattyj says:

    If you want to see that wave in action, see San Andreas. Totally stupid movie but I enjoyed all the mayhem. One of the best Golden Gate destruction scenes I've ever seen.

  2. I did a little modelling a while back on whether the Golden Gate would shield us from a tsunami. The short answer is that the wave height inside the bay would be about half the wave height at Ocean Beach. So, no, not really.

    • Eric says:

      Did your model account for the restricted flow through the golden gate?

      Remember that there's an energy component involved - an incredibly large volume of water being pushed from behind. But the Golden Gate straight is only 2km wide. So the huge influx of wave energy will then be dispersed over many more km's of bay shoreline. Here's an article:

      According to this piece Port of Oakland and Alameda will get the worst of it. There's also the slight detail that our nearby faults are not subduction faults. Apparently the biggest tsunami threat to the Bay Area is from the Aleutians. (surprise)

  3. Tom Lord says:

    Um... this is just a little, too too.

    one of the chief scientists behind it is Chris Goldfinger.

    So it's "Chris", now, Mr. Goldfinger?

    Natural phenomenon, indeed.

  4. nooj says:

    More disaster porn: "Aftermath" by Al Steiner (NSFW).

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